Kourosh Keshmiri booked on DUI Fatality in Mission Viejo

Posted by CotoBlogzz


Rancho Santa Margarita, California -  According to the Orange County Sheriff's (OCSD) department,  at approximately 3:00 a.m. today, Orange County Sheriff's deputies responded to a traffic collision in the 26000 block of Pacato Drive in Mission Viejo.

The driver, Kourosh Keshmiri, 27, Mission Viejo, crashed his vehicle through the front of a residence.  He was booked for felony DUI with a prior conviction and may face additional charges following the completion of the investigation.

A male inside the front bedroom was struck by the vehicle and pronounced deceased on scene.  The release of his identity is pending confirmation and notification of next of kin.  There was a male passenger in the vehicle that was interviewed and released.  Additionally, another male inside the residence was uninjured.  The Southern California Gas Company also secured a severed natural gas line as a result of the collision.

Keshmiri has a prior misdemeanor DUI conviction in August 2010 and a pending case from June 2013.  His current driver’s license is suspended from the pending case in June of th

5 Arrested in OC Court DUI Sting Operation

Posted by CotoBlogzz


Rancho Santa Margarita, California- Five people were arrested today at a Court Sting Operation conducted by the Orange County Sheriff’s Department as part of the ‘Avoid the 38’ DUI Task Force.  This operation was conducted at the Harbor Justice Center in Newport Beach.

According to the Orange County Sherif's Department (OCSD) the  Task Force targeted defendants who were present in court that had a suspended driver’s license because of a prior DUI.   After their court proceedings, they were followed out to the parking lot by plainclothes members of the Task Force.  If the defendant entered a vehicle and drove away, uniformed deputies stopped the vehicle and arrested the defendant for driving on a suspended license.  The defendant’s vehicle was then impounded for 30 days.  All five of the defendants were cited and released at the scene.

Police, Sheriff and the CHP encourage all motorists to help make your community safer and report drunk drivers by calling 9-1-1.  Grant funding for this program is provided by the California Office of Traffic Safety through the National Highway Traffic Safety A

Thomas Tarbutton, Newport Beach, a fugitive extradited from Panama on $2.9 million ponzi real estate fraud scheme

 Thomas Tarbutton, Newport Beach, a fugitive extradited from Panama on $2.9 million ponzi real estate fraud scheme

Posted by CotoBlogzz

Rancho Santa Margarita, CA  - Thomas Franklin Tarbutton,  a fugitive "hard money" lender has been extradited back to Orange County from Panama for embezzling nearly $3 million from investors in a Ponzi real estate fraud scheme.

Tarbutton, 54, Newport Beach, is charged with 29 felony counts including grand theft and forgery, and sentencing enhancements and allegations for loss over $100,000, property loss over $3.2 million, and aggravated white collar crime. He I is being held on $2 million bail and must prove that the money is from a legal and legitimate source before posting bond. Tarbutton is scheduled to be arraigned tomorrow, Thursday, Dec. 19, 2013, in Department CJ-1, Central Jail, Santa Ana.

According to the Orange County District Attorney's (OCDA) office, between 2004 and 2010, Tarbutton is accused of operating Villa Capital Inc. as a "hard money" lender by soliciting money from private investors for borrowers looking for funds from non-bank lenders. He is accused of defrauding nine people in a Ponzi real estate fraud scheme.

Tarbutton is accused of embezzling from his private investors by keeping the money they lent for borrowers and not funding the loans as promised. He is accused of providing his victims with fraudulent and forged real estate documents from the Orange County Clerk-Recorder Department showing that they were lien holders on property deeds. He is accused of supplying investors with false and forged mortgage payments and fraudulent documents of investment of the mortgage payments. Tarbutton is accused of supplying investors with small interest payments using funds from their initial investment to prevent them from discovering that the loans had not been repaid. He is accused of stopping all payments when the real estate market collapsed.

The fraud was reported by four victims to the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) in October 2010.  The FBI, with assistance from the Orange County District Attorney (OCDA) Investigators, investigated this case.

In October 2011, charges were filed against Tarbutton and a $2 million warrant was issued for his arrest. The defendant is accused of fleeing the country, ultimately living in Brazil. In December 2013, Tarbutton is accused of flying from Brazil to Panama. He was detained by Panamanian authorities on the Orange County warrant on Dec. 14, 2013, attempting to cross the border from Panama to Costa Rica. Panamanian officials returned Tarbutton to Los Angeles International Airport to the custody of the FBI and OCDA on Dec. 17, 2013.

The investigation is ongoing. Anyone with additional information or who believes they have been a victim is encouraged to contact Supervising District Attorney Investigator Eric Akerlind at (714) 347-8691.

Senior Deputy District Attorney Pete Pierce of the Major Fraud Unit is prosecuting this case.

The Saddleback College Speech and Debate Team makes its presence felt in PSCFA Fall Championships

Posted by CotoBlogzz

Rancho Santa Margarita, CA--The Saddleback Speech and Debate Team finished 7th overall amongst community colleges and competed against over 40 different colleges and universities at Cal State University Long Beach on the weekend of December 6th-8th.

Among the schools competing were Eastern Michigan University, Rice, and Point Loma. Incredibly, the schools that finished ahead of Saddleback had more than 50-60 additional students to Saddleback’s 23, yet Saddleback still managed to place in the top 7 for the second year in a row.

Melissa Armstrong, Alex Sherwood, Scott Lankford at a recent tournament

The results are: 

Dennis Meador

4th Place Open Programmed Oral Interpretation

2nd Place Open After Dinner Speaking

Bailey Prince

Gold Medal Novice Debate

3rd Place Junior Impromptu Speaking

Sina Riahi

Finalist Novice Informative

Carley Lassalette

Finalist Novice Informative

Tyler Kline

Gold Medal Novice Debate

Finalist Junior Impromptu Speaking

Patrick Leahy

4th Novice Impromptu

Danny Roy

2nd Place Novice Programmed Oral Interpretation

Kelly Wobst

Finalist Novice Programmed Oral Interpretation

The Saddleback Forensics Team started in the 1970s and prides itself on offering students the ability to create innovative arguments for future writing and speaking engagements to strengthen their critical thinking skills and to better communicate with others. On the forensics team, students write, rehearse, and perform at 6-7 tournaments against students from Universities and Community Colleges to qualify for the national tournament. The students representing Saddleback at the national tournament have placed above several competitors representing institutions throughout the year, including: Concordia University, Point Loma, California State University, Los Angeles, California State University, Long Beach, and UCLA.
 

Located in Mission Viejo, Saddleback College provides quality higher education and training to the greater south Orange County community.  Having served more than 500,000 students since 1968, Saddleback College offers over 300 degree and certificate programs to help students reach their personal, career, and educational goals.  For more information, please visit www.saddleback.edu and for Fine Arts information, please visit www.saddleback.edu/arts.

- Law enforcement is seeking the public's help identifying potential additional victims of Raymond Boykin, charged with sexual assault

Rancho santa margarita, CA- Law enforcement is seeking the public's help identifying potential additional victims of a man charged with sexually assaulting two women in a mall and church parking lot. 

According to the Orange County Dustrict Attorne's (OCDA) office, Raymond Boykin, 18, Anaheim, is charged with multiple sexual iffenses, including second degree robbery, unlawful taking of a vehicle, evading while driving recklessly, two felony counts of assault with the intent to commit a sexual offense, and sentencing enhancements and allegations for the personal use of a deadly weapon.

 Boykin is being held on $1 million bail and is expected to be arraigned tomorrow, Tuesday, Dec. 17, 2013, in Department CJ-1, Central Jail, Santa Ana.

At approximately 5:15 p.m. on Dec. 11, 2013, Boykin is accused of approaching 19-year-old Jane Doe #1 in a parking structure at Westfield MainPlace Mall in Santa Ana. He is accused of forcing his way into her car, assaulting the victim with a weapon, and sexually assaulting her. He is accused of then stealing her purse and fleeing the scene. The case was reported to and investigated by the Santa Ana Police Department.

At approximately 6:15 a.m. on Dec. 13, 2013, Boykin is accused of approaching 42-year-old Jane Doe #2 in a parking lot of Sa Rang Community Church in Anaheim. He is accused of forcing his way into her car, assaulting the victim with a weapon, and sexually assaulting her. He is accused of then stealing her car and fleeing the scene. The case was reported to and investigated by the Anaheim Police Department (APD).

At approximately 10:30 a.m. on Dec. 13, 2013, Boykin is accused of being observed by an APD officer driving in the stolen vehicle. He is accused of leading officers in a pursuit before crashing into another vehicle and fleeing on foot. He is accused of hiding in a nearby apartment, where he was located by police canines and arrested.

Anyone who believes they have been a victim is encouraged to contact Supervising District Attorney investigator Paul Carvo at (714) 347-8794 or Orange County Crime Stoppers at (855) 847-6227.

Deputy District Attorney Whitney Bokosky of the Sexual Assault Unit is prosecuting this case.

POLL: State is Expensive and Lacks Jobs

California Voters Agree State is Expensive and Lacks Jobs

By Chriss Street

The Field Poll on December 12th reported the number of Californian voters who believe the state is “one of the best places to live” has been cut in half since 1985, dropping from almost 80% to just over 40% today. According to the poll: “Despite this general dissatisfaction a majority of liberals, registered Democrats, and voters living in the nine-county San Francisco Bay Area rate the state as one of the best places to live.” Not surprisingly, less than a third of Republicans, conservatives and voters living in state’s rural Central Valley describe the state in positive terms. But the polling does confirm that over 90% of Californians are in agreement on two important issues, the state’s cost of living is outrageous and job prospects are lousy.

Over the last two decades, the state of California has careened through a series of economic downturns and fiscal crisis. It should not be surprising that Field found only a third of voters age 40-64, the prime years for wealth accumulation, now rate the state as one of the best places to live. This “mighty middle” demographic has suffered through California’s economy plummeting from the equivalent of the 6th to the 12th largest in the world. About half of seniors 65 and older and young people less than 40 years old, still rate the state as a best places to live. Perhaps seniors took their gold out of the Golden State during the good times and the youth are still enjoying the state’s terrific weather.

The Field Poll revealed that only liberals are California cheerleaders; with 59% of liberal voters rating the state a best place to live versus only 41% of moderates and 32% of conservatives. The lack of enthusiasm among non-liberals seems directly related to state’s grim 8.7% unemployment rate, the fifth worst in the nation. Liberals optimistically argue that the jobs number has improved from over 10% last year, the second worst in the country. But half of the decline in last month unemployment came from the public sector adding 12,200 new government jobs and 9,600 positions in education and health services. The private sector shed 5,600 manufacturing positions and 3,700 financial services jobs.

One of the reasons the reported unemployment rate isn’t higher is that the State of California’s statistically considers all 1,427,000 welfare recipients to be employed. With only 12% of the nation’s population, 34% of nation’s welfare recipients now live in California. This robust participation rate in this “employment program” is due to California paying ultra-high monthly cash grants of $638 to families on welfare. The state also continues to pay benefits for children after the parents lose eligibility and provides child care and transportation if beneficiaries attend school or training.

With progressive liberals controlling veto proof majorities in the California Legislature, the state spends more per capita than other state on the combination of higher education, public safety and social services. To pay for this largess, Californian’s are burdened with the 4th highest state and local tax rates in the country according to the Tax Foundation. This includes the highest income tax rates for upper-income households and one of the lowest income tax rates for lower-income households. California’s also has the highest average state sales tax rates and one of the highest corporate income tax rates in the nation.

Despite liberals’ claims of a recovery, California lost over 73,000 businesses in 2012, a 5.2% decline. The next biggest loser was Massachusetts with a loss of 5,200 businesses. Every other state in America actually reported gains in new businesses.

The Field Poll has been asking Californians about their quality of life since the late 1960s, when about 70% said the state was one of the best places to live. That number rose to almost 78% in 1985 when former California Governor Ronald Reagan was President. But it crashed to 33% in 1992 recession, then rose back to 54% in 2000 during the tech bubble, and has been mired at about 40% ever since.

High taxes may fund welfare payments that artificially drive down the unemployment rate; but those crushing tax rates drive up the cost of living and have been motivating businesses to leave the state for years. Other than a small cadre of dedicated liberals; don’t expect the rest of Californians to start rating the state as a “best place to live” anytime soon.

Blair Hanloh, Long Beach, convicted of $3.5 million fraud

Posted by CotoBlogzz

Rancho Santa Margarita, CA -  Blair Christopher Hanloh,  was sentenced today to four years in state prison for recording false quitclaim deeds on several residential properties as part of an elaborate scheme to possess and rent out properties valued at over $3.5 million, according to the Orange County District Attorney's ( OCDA) office.

Blair Christopher Hanloh, 50, Long Beach, was convicted by a jury Oct. 30, 2013, of five felony counts of recording false and forged instruments.

The Court ruled today that Hanloh could not be sentenced to a state prison term due to current prison realignment legislation and sentenced the defendant to serve his state prison sentence in county jail.

Hanloh owned and operated as Blair Hanloh Trustee of Diversified Management Trust (Diversified Management). He started this company to record quitclaim deeds to fraudulently transfer properties from himself to Diversified Management.

Prior to Feb. 1, 2010, Hanloh visited properties on Birch Tree Lane in Anaheim and Sea Bright Drive in Dana Point to assess whether they were vacant or mid-foreclosure. He did not own these homes. After a couple of weeks, Hanloh fraudulently took possession of the houses, drilled the locks, entered the homes, and then changed the locks.

On Feb. 1, 2010, Hanloh recorded two fraudulent quitclaim deeds on Birch Tree and Sea Bright Drive homes. He fixed up the homes and posted them for rent on Craigslist. He then rented out the properties to unsuspecting renters by having them sign a fraudulent lease agreement.

On March 5, 2010, Hanloh took possession of and recorded a fraudulent quitclaim deed on a property on Rainview Court in Anaheim. Hanloh then rented the property to a renter-family by having them sign a fraudulent lease agreement. Hanloh is accused of entering the home with the intent to commit larceny. The defendant was convicted for recording the fraudulent quitclaim deed and was charged with one felony count of commercial burglary, but the jury was deadlocked on that charge.

On March 11, 2010, Hanloh fraudulently took possession of two houses, one in foreclosure on Del Gado Road in Dana Point and the other due to be sold at public auction on Avenida Valencia in San Clemente. He recorded fraudulent quitclaim deeds and placed a renter in the San Clemente property.

The Anaheim Police Department began investigating Hanloh after they received a call from the legal owner of the Rainview Court property about tenants in his home that he did not know and had not rented from him. Orange County District Attorney's Investigators assisted in the investigation.

Senior Deputy District Attorney Pete Pierce of the Major Fraud Unit prosecuted this case. 

Orange County, the Grinch that stole Christmas

Posted by CotoBlogzz 

But residents in the subdivision tucked in the foothills of Trabuco Canyon  said they have no plans to take down the lights that zigzag above the street -- despite warnings that they could be fined or even prosecuted if they fail to remove the display by nightfall Wednesday.

Read More: 

http://touch.latimes.com/#section/-1/article/p2p-78421096/

HOA LOSES 501(c)(4) status - IRS uses Google Maps as evidence

Posted by CotoBlogzz

A redacted IRS letter dated Sept. 8, 2011 reveals that at least in one case the IRS’s examiners used photos of a property, obtained through Google Maps, as evidence to revoke the 501(c)(4) status of a homeowner’s association.

“The road consists of a two-mile loop around the inside of the property. It does not have any sidewalks or bicycle lanes. The examining agent printed and copied a map from Google Maps (www.google.com) into this report,” states the letter.

http://dailycaller.com/2013/12/07/irs-using-google-maps-to-spy-on-taxpayers/#ixzz2mocHz3dA

Anna Bryson, running for the seat in Assembly District 73, gets early Christmas present

HERRINGTON, SINGLETON, KHACHIGIAN ENDORSE BRYSON
FOR ASSEMBLY DISTRICT 73

Posted by CotoBlogzz

Rancho Santa Margarita, CA -  Anna Bryson, a small business owner and respected education reformer, today announced receipt of early Christmas present! Bryson, running for Assembly District 73, seat currently held by Assemblywoman Diane Harkey, was endorsed by John Herrington, Norm Singleton and  Ken Khachigian


John Herrington is the  former Secretary of Energy under President Reagan and former Chair of the California Republican Party

Norm Singleton is the former Legislative Director for Congressman Ron Paul and policy director for Ron Paul for President 2012

Ken Khachigian was chief speechwriter for President Reagan


They join other accomplished Californians like former Secretary of State George Schultz, nationally syndicated radio show host Hugh Hewitt, former U.S. Treasurer Rosario Marin, and Assemblyman Don Wagner in supporting Bryson’s bid for the state Assembly.

"I’m overwhelmed by the support I’ve received from some of the finest and most respected leaders in California and the nation," said Bryson. "It’s truly an honor to have them join our team of supporters and I’m encouraged by the momentum that is reflected in their support.”

As a trustee on the Capistrano Unified School District, Anna Bryson has been one of California’s leading education reformers, helping to balance the district’s budget while increasing educational excellence.

Stock Market To Crash: Nobel Prize Winner

NOBEL PRIZE WINNER WARNS OF STOCK MARKET RISK

By Chriss Street

With the Dow Jones stock index up 115% from March 2009 to an all-time and the number of bearish investors at the lowest point in 25 years, it should not be surprising that this years’ Nobel Prize winning economist, Robert Shiller, would warn over the weekend that greedy investors might be blowing themselves a dangerous bubble that might be about to burst and seriously hurt the economy. As the author of “Irrational Exuberance”, he predicted the top in the 1990s bull market in stocks, the 2005 top in residential real estate and warned in 2007 of a coming bank crisis less than a year before Lehman Brothers filed for bankruptcy. When Shiller talks; people should listen!

Robert Shiller wasn’t always a believer in the ability to call for market tops. He received his PhD from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology in 1972 for his thesis: “Rational expectations and the structure of interest rates”. Shiller’s offered an extension of the “efficient market theory” that argued buyers’ and sellers’ access to market research meant that even after rising 9 out of the last 10 years, the prices of stocks could not be overvalued. But over the next two years, the stock market suffered a 36% decline, the worst back to back decline since the Depression.

Shiller was so rattled by the 1970s crash, he reversed course and in 1981 published an article in The American Economic Review titled “Do stock prices move too much to be justified by subsequent changes in dividends?” to challenge the efficient-market hypothesis, which was the dominant view in the economics profession at the time. Shiller argued that if the stock market was “rational”, then investors would base stock prices on the expected receipt of future dividends, discounted over the time. When Shiller examined U.S. stock market performance since the 1920s, he concluded market volatility was greater than could plausibly be explained by any efficient market. Shiller seemed to prove the obvious; the emotions of fear and greed are not “rational.”

Over the weekend Shiller warned in Sunday’s Der Spiegel magazine: “I am most worried about the boom in the U.S. stock market…Bubbles look like this. And the world is still very vulnerable to a bubble.” He is most concerned that stocks in the financial and technology sectors as so overvalued, they will lead to the downside in a crash.

The Federal Reserve’s pushing down interest rates to stimulate the economy undoubtedly forced tens of millions of traditional savers to pull their money out of bank CDs yielding less than 1% in order to speculate in the stock market. I estimate that more than half the equity market performance over the last four years is directly related to the Fed’s stimulus. But the Federal Reserve also has the responsibility to make sure that their stimulus does not mutate into destructive inflation. Former Chairman William McChesney Martin once famously said that the job of the Federal Reserve was to “to take away the punch bowl just as the party gets going,”– that is, raise interest rates just when economy reaches peak activity after a recession. If the Fed raises interest rates, the stock market will take a tumble and those savers will panic.

The value of the Standard & Poor’s stock market index is up by 115% since the “Great Recession” low of March 2009 and 22% of that gain was just in the last three months. From 2008 to 2011, almost a third of investors were extremely negative on the prospects for stock performance, but the public has recently abandoned all caution and this week only one in seven investors believe stock prices will decline over the next year. Recently Goldman Sachs reassured investors that they believe the stock market has substantial upside. But given the average annualized rate of growth in stock prices since 1871 is only 2.16%, was it Goldman Sachs brokers’ or customers’ that have substantial upside?

Field Poll Shows Californians Abandoning Obama

By Chriss Street

California voters are becoming critical of the job Barack Obama is doing as President. According to the latest Field Poll reveals that 51% of California voters approve of the President’s overall performance, but 43% now disapprove. This represents an 8 point increase coming from some of the President’s strongest former supporter groups since July. The rise in dissatisfaction is being driven by independents, Latinos, union-affiliated households and women. It seems that Obama’s bumbling of healthcare and foreign policy may even have consequences in the Peoples’ Republic.

The President has been continuously in the doghouse with American voters since the second week in December of 2012. He hit an all-time low for both terms of his Presidency today with a negative 24% according to the Rasmussen Reports in the spread between voters who say he is doing a good job versus a poor job. But until this week’s report, Californian’s voters have been Obama’s rock, with an average positive performance spread of plus 24%. But in the last ten months the number of independents who are dissatisfied with Obama almost doubled to 40%; but even the number of Democrats also doubled to 18%.

The ballooning of the President’s negatives has come since September, when most Californians were evenly split on the direction of our nation. But recently that number has crashed and now only 33% of Californians say the country is moving in the right direction, with “55% saying it is seriously off on the wrong track”. It seems that many people on the “Left Coast” are tiring of the mighty communicator’s narrative.

Two topics are driving down Obama support. More Californians now disapprove (50%) than approve (43%) of the way Obama is handling health care, his signature domestic policy issue. Early in his tenure, The Field Poll had shown very large majorities supportive of the President handling of the nation’s foreign policy; voters now offer a more mixed assessment, with 49% approving and 40% disapproving.

Obama and the Democrats political “secret sauce” in California has been their pandering to demographic subgroups of voters. But the trend seems to no longer be their friend. The President’s job approval ratings have declined the most among the California electorate that had been among the President’s strongest supporters. According to Field, “the proportions disapproving have increased by 16 points among independents with no party preference, 16 points among Latinos, 18 points among union-affiliated households, and 13 points among women. With women comprising 55% of voters, the klaxon horn is going off for Democrats in California as halo from Obama’s female approval falling from 40% to 27%.

Meg Whitman, former California Republican candidate for governor and now brilliant turnaround CEO at Hewlett Packard said: “You know, I think, people of all stripes in California, Republicans, Democrats, conservatives, liberals, frankly, as I have traveled the state, the number one issue is jobs. And they are looking for which candidate can get the economy back on track.” Amazingly, the President’s performance on the economy is only down modestly; with about as many approving (49%) as now disapproving (45%). With California suffering the second highest “U-6” unemployment rate in the country at 18.3% versus a national average of 14.3% according to Bureau of Labor Statistic, if Obama and the Democrats start getting blamed for the dismal economy, we could be in for national and California regime change.

A Magical Celebration of New Year’s Eve in Rancho Santa Margarita

 Includes A Mind Reading Show Featuring Master Magician Mark Gibson

Posted By CotoBlogzz

Rancho Santa Margarita, CA – Rancho Santa Margarita will host a magical celebration of New Year’s Eve with live music, gourmet food trucks, roving entertainers, inflatable rides with children crafts and games for children at Central Park when the City hosts the 13^th annual Celebrating Family and Friends New Year’s Eve event on Tuesday, December 31, 2013. 

Master magician Mark Gibson will kick of the celebration in the Community Center Ballroom with a magic show at 5:00 p.m. followed by a mind reading show at 7:00 p.m. Seating is limited for both shows and available on a first-come, first served basis.

A former Tesoro High School student, Gibson has been thrilling people with his magic since he was just ten years old. Gibson combines awe inspiring illusions, skillful juggling routines, along with side splitting humor and a fast witted presentation. He holds the impressive record of being the youngest magician ever to perform at the world famous Magic Castle in Hollywood, and continues to perform there today.

Recently, Gibson became involved with Magic is Medicine, a non-profit organization that solicits magicians to perform at children's hospitals, rehabilitation centers and veterans hospitals. In addition, Gibson teaches magic to patients as a physical therapy technique to promote hand-eye coordination, motor skills, and cognitive brain function.

Celebrating Family and Friends is an alcohol-free community event.  For more event information, please visit the City’s website at www.cityofrsm.org, 

Community Services Facebook page at www.facebook.com/rsmcommunitycenter or call Community Services at (949) 216-9700.  

Energy Driving Asian Military Confrontation

ENERGY DRIVES ASIAN MILITARY CONFRONTATION

By Chriss Street

China’s Ministry of Defense on November 30th at 10 AM local time began enforcing an expanded Air Defense Identification Zone, which now covers a huge off-shore expanse that includes the disputed oil rich Diaoyu/Senkaku Islands in the East China Sea. Forced to rely the Middle East oil for electrical production, Asian energy costs are surging and supply has become unstable due to the continuing Arab Spring turmoil. .

With American domestic energy costs falling as supplies surge due to the boom in fracking for shale oil and gas, Chinese manufacturers are becoming economically uncompetitive on a cost basis compared to the U.S. producers. With China, Japan, Taiwan, and South Korea equally desperate to save jobs by exploiting potentially cheap and abundant off-shore oil, energy economics will drive military confrontations in Asia

The Chinese claim the discovery and control of the Diaoyu islands from the 14th Century, but Japan took control of the islands from 1895 until its surrender to the U.S. at the end of World War II. During the United States Civil Administration of the Ryukyu Islands after 1945, it was discovered that oil reserves might be found under the sea near the islands. In anticipation of the turnover of the Senkaku islands, Japan declared a 100 mile ADIZ around the islands in 1969. Since reverting back to Japanese control under the 1971 Okinawa Reversion Agreement, sovereignty around the islands has been disputed by the People’s Republic of China, Taiwan and South Korea.

The new Chinese rules require that aircraft must ask for permission to fly in the ADIZ, aircraft in the zone must identify and keep in communication with Chinese authorities, all aircraft must “follow the instructions of the administrative organ of the East China Sea Air Defense Identification Zone”, and warn that “China’s armed forces will adopt defensive emergency measures to respond to aircraft that do not cooperate in the identification or refuse to follow the instructions.” In response to these new Chinese edits, the U.S. flew two unarmed B-52 bombers from Guam on November 25th without notification. Then on 29th, the People’s Liberation Army Air Force scrambled Su-30 and J-11 warplanes in response to 10 flights of Japanese F-15s, E-767s and P-3s; U.S. P-3s and EP-3s; and South Korean fighter jets flying through the ADIZ.

The 1919 Paris Convention for the Regulation of Aerial Navigation recognized the principal of freedom of the skies as an extension of “freedom of the high seas” that limited territorial sea claims of coastal nations to 12 nautical miles off their shores. The Convention on International Civil Aviation of 1944 updated air rights, but it was the 1982 United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) created the framework for exclusive economic zone (EEZ) in waters previously regarded as high seas. The three basic obligations of the treaty: (1) the duty to refrain from the unlawful threat or use of force; (2) the duty to have “due regard” to the rights of others to use the sea; and (3) the duty to observe applicable obligations under other treaties or rules of international law.

The United States extended what had been its 12 nautical mile territorial sea into a “high seas” Air Defense Identification Zone in response to heightened tensions with the Soviet Union caused by the outbreak of the Korean War in 1950. America claims continental ADIZs extending 300 nautical miles in some Atlantic areas and more than 400 nautical miles in Southern California. The United States also maintains ADIZs off the coast of Alaska extending out at least 350 nautical miles into the Bering Sea, similar distance into the Arctic Sea off Alaska’s northern coast, 250 nautical miles around Guam and up to 250 nautical miles north of the Hawaiian Islands.

The U.S. from 1870 to 1970 dominated manufacturing and won two wars on the back of oil and gas prices that averaged a third of the world’s price. But shrinking domestic production after 1972 destroyed America’s energy cost advantage by the 1980s. Once expanded Middle East oil production equalized energy costs for the world, American manufacturers began relocating jobs to Asia to stay competitively in lower labor costs.

But U.S. natural gas prices have fallen from $15 per thousand cubic feet (mcf) in 2000 to about $3.50 mcf today. This compares to rising natural gas prices that are $10 mcf in Europe, $12 mcf in China and $17 mcf in Japan. If this cost advantage holds or widens as America exploits its spectacular abundance shale to frack for oil and gas, Asian employment will fall as huge amounts of manufacturing relocates to the United States.

No country has more risk from high energy prices than China, which passed the U.S. in 2010 as the world’s largest manufacturer. China passed Russia to grab the number two spot behind the U.S. in defense spending. Fearing the Peoples’ Liberation Army would become the dominant military power in East Asia, Japan has launched a crash rearmliment drive that by next year will have ballooned defense outlays passed France and U.K. to the number four spot, just behind Russia.

The width of China’s new ADIZ does not extend beyond the international EEZ standard. But according to Stratfor Reports: “Beijing is testing U.S. responses in the Western Pacific, as China attempts to shape a new maritime balance in the area. All sides will use the current standoff to recalibrate the balance of power over energy and maritime geopolitics that, much like during the Cold War.”

Japan retaliated early this year to China’s growing military assertiveness by extending its ADIZ around the Senkaku islands by another 15 miles. The current western border of the zone extends at its closest point to just 81 miles off the Chinese mainland. IN this escalating tit for tat, between July and September the Japanese military was forced to scramble fighter jets 80 times in response to Chinese warplane and drone intrusions.

Beijing seems distressed enough about the potential loss of millions of manufacturing jobs that they are willing to threaten the use of military force to assert a sphere of influence that will capture most of the off-shore oil and gas drilling rights in the East and South China seas. Facing U.S.-Japan and U.S.-South Korea security agreements, China is employing tools like the ADIZ to force regional competitors to readjust their behavior in light of China’s ambitions and naval heft. China’s confrontations may not be intended to lead to a clash, but when armed and dangerous nations play chicken with modern weapons, the risk of a military miscalculation and accidental war accelerates.