COTO DE CAZA PUBLIC SAFETY STATISTICS
– A BRIEF OVERVIEW
May 9, 2006
In the words of former NYC mayor Rudy Giuliani from his speech at DMD New York in June 2002 when he was asked by an audience member how he got crime under control, he replied the city set up the right tracking metrics and benchmarks. Giuliani said, "If you can't measure it, you can't manage it; and you can't manage it if you are not measuring it." He said.
Actually this is an old management theory which goes back to the time of time and motion studies in the Detroit car industry, and it definitely makes sense, you need to have information on the number of units you have sold, the performance of the sales people, the cost of all units, the number of units manufactured per hour per shop floor employee, the number of tickets punched per hour, number of defects per 1000 widgets, etc. If you don't know these figures, you cannot improve on them, you cannot identify the problem, you cannot think about resolutions and solutions and you certainly cannot do any kind of forward planning.
It should be pointed out that this theory is applicable to almost every human endeavor that you can think of, as Rudy alluded to. For example, one of the common elements of a successful state is that it has a good bureaucracy with a meticulous and precise statistical and data collection service. Starting from the Inca's, Pharaohs of Egypt, the ancient Chinese civilizations down to the great dynasties of Abbasids, Guptas, Romans to the Moguls, Ottomans, Japanese, British, French, Germans etc.. A successful dynasty / kingdom had an able bureaucratic structure and lots of data collection. The caveat of course, is that figures do not lie, but liars figure!
We have long been advocating the use of key business indicators to manage the CZ Master Association’s affairs, and until the first fatal traffic accident in 10 years in Coto de Caza, we have had little impact. The following is a brief overview comparing our efforts at constructing a public safety tool for unincorporated areas, such as Coto de Caza and Ladera Ranch, and compare that to the quality of data long supplied by the current Coto de Caza Board of Directors.
The Evolution of a Crime and Vandalism Management Tool
Our first attempt to baseline crime and vandalism in and around Coto de Caza took us to the CNN/Money. CNN/Money commissioned a study for their Better Places to Live section, and use census, FBI and other data. We published these results in the November 2004 issue of CotoBuzz and include a number of communities in and around Coto.
NOVEMBER 2004 - COTO DE CAZA - Source: CNN/News
Population: 13,597
Crime about crime data
City
Stats
Natl.
Avg.
Rank from
Lo to Hi
(out of 1260)
Personal crime risk
(index based on 100 average;
lower is better)
59
100
777
Property crime risk
(index based on 100 average;
lower is better)
41
100
282
NOVEMBER 2004 - RANCHO SANTA MARGARITA: Source: CNN/News
Crime
City
Stats
Natl.
Avg.
Rank from
Lo to Hi
(out of 1260)
Personal crime risk
(index based on 100 average;
lower is better)
31
100
406
Property crime risk
(index based on 100 average;
lower is better)
31
100
187
NOVEMBER 2004 - IRVINE: Source: CNN/News
Population: 150,450
Crime (about crime data)
City
Stats
Natl.
Avg.
Rank from
Lo to Hi
(out of 1260)
Personal crime risk
(index based on 100 average;
lower is better)
125
100
1,066
Property crime risk
(index based on 100 average;
lower is better)
63
100
568
NOVEMBER 2004 - LAKE FOREST Source: CNN/News
Population: 61,091
Crime (about crime data)
City
Stats
Natl.
Avg.
Rank from
Lo to Hi
(out of 1260)
Personal crime risk
(index based on 100 average;
lower is better)
28
100
341
Property crime risk
(index based on 100 average;
lower is better)
24
100
142
DECEMBER 2005
As of December 2005, CNN/Money dropped Coto de Caza out of its Best Places to Live with population under 100,000, whereas the top 6 cities are:
1
Rancho Santa Margarita, CA
2
Flower Mound, TX
3
San Clemente, CA
4
Tustin, CA
5
Carlsbad, CA
6
Laguna Niguel, CA
JANUARY 2006
Not having a reliable place to collect crime and vandalism data, since CNN/Money were no longer interested in Coto de Caza, we started to work with the Orange County Sheriff’s department. And have now developed a tool for Coto de Caza and Ladera Ranch – for other incorporated areas, such as Rancho Santa Margarita, the OC Sheriff’s blotter can be used.
SOURCE: Orange County Sheriff’s department
SHERIFF'S REPORT FOR COTO DE CAZA
COTO DE CAZA CRIME TRENDS
Jan-06
Feb-06
ZIP CODE: 92679
Totals Reports (Part I, II & III)
18
22
Part I
Aggravated Assault
0
2
Burglary
2
2
Larceny/Theft
4
2
Part II
Other Assaults
6
1
Fraud
2
5
Other Offenses
1
3
Suspicion
2
0
Vandalism
0
3
Vehicle Violations
0
1
Part III - Non-Criminal Incidents
Prank
1
0
Other Non-Criminal
0
3
Total Number of Domestic Violence Cases
Domestic Abuse
1
3
Total Number of Arrests
1
0
Age Breakdown for Suspects
Jan-06
Feb-06
17 years and under
0
2
18-20 years
0
0
21-24 years
0
1
25-29 years
1
0
30-34 years
0
1
35-39 years
1
3
40-44 years
1
0
45-49 years
0
0
50 years or older
0
0
And exactly what sort of metrics do we get from the current Coto de Caza Board of Directors? “The Sheriff keeps track of calls for law enforcement service to Coto and other communities. According to the Sheriff’s numbers for 2004 and 2005, our law enforcement calls by the Sheriff’s department run about ¼ the rate of other South Orange County communities on a per capita basis” – Jerry Mezger, Coto de Caza Board of Directors, April 26, 2006, prompting the following response from former board member, Joseph Morabito:
“Rather than arguing about crime statistics in Coto, we need to start with the premise that we don't want any crime in Coto. From that premise, our bench mark should be Zero crimes so then even one is too many. Therefore when the high priced Security Consultant the incompetent CZ Board has retained, retired ex-Sheriff Lisanti says that we fall in the normal range for a community our size related to crime rate, what ever that means, it is bureaucratic law enforcement acceptance and rationalization that some crime is normal. While that may be true, if that becomes the accepted premise, then it allows for the paint ball shooting, a hit and run accident that resulted in a tragic death, stealing of our mail or other items in unlocked cars in our driveways etc. etc. because perhaps these things happen less often in Coto than they do in East LA or Watts. But, we don't live in East LA or Watts. For the extra $200 a month we pay to live behind these gates, we should never accept the notion that some crime is normal because it allows for the rationalization of crime. If that is the best our new Security Consultant can do, then please CZ Board Members stop wasting our money. We can read the newspapers to get that information for free or the price of a subscription”
PRO-ACTIVE TRAFFIC PATROL:
CZ board member, Metzger has characterized the current Coto de Caza traffic patrol as “intensive” – only after the board was coerced into bringing back the CHP – the problem is that since the association has not invested in a tickler file for its service providers, those responsible let road certification expire all but Coto de Caza Drive – apparently making this road the more intensively patrolled street in traffic the history of Coto de Caza!
In contrast, the more pensive approach to public safety in Ladera Ranch with a much larger population that Coto de Caza during February 2006, averaged 5 - 6 units per shift on Day Shift and Swing Shift, and 3 units on Graveyard Shift worth of CHP patrol.
Bottom Line: Coto de Caza has logged two traffic fatalities in the last six months. Ladera Ranch? None since 2000!
COTO DE CAZA: Source: CHP
1Q06
Traffic Collisions
5
Total number of Hours of Enforcement
445
Total number of Citations
507
Total number of Warnings
90
Total Arrests
8
1Q06
Counts:
Citations
Warnings
Seat belt
55
12
Stop sign
184
21
Speeding
225
31
Expired Registration
6
6
License Plates
5
4
Mechanical Violations
13
4
DUI - Marijuana
1
0
Suspended license
1
0
Other
19
11
Arrest
8
0
Sub-total
517
89
Daily Average
11
PERIOD
2002
2003
2004
2005
1Q06
ACCIDENTS
15
19
22
28
20
%
0%
27%
47%
87%
5%
COTO DE CAZA ACCIDENT RATE: Source: CHP
LADERA RANCH- Source: CHP
2004
2005
Total Citations: 387
387
315
Arrest
4
4
Speeding
181
100
Seat Belts
70
54
And what exactly are the statistics used by the Coto de Caza Board of Directors?
Typical example from March 2005 CZ Master Association General Session Meeting Minutes”
52 incident reports
330 parking citations17 vehicles towed
21 gate strikes
104 new transponder issues
123 replacement transponders
96 defective transponders
2 fall of transponders
991 aentry access denies
It should be noted that all citations issued are toothless – that is, rarely if ever are they enforced, and in some cases, simply thrown in the circular file!
INVASION OF PRIVACY
Invasion of privacy has been an element of the multiple comprehensive public safety proposals we have advanced to the Coto de Caza board of directors, without much success. We have documented evidence of certain violations and we are working on a management tools to help with this endeavor as well
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We do not make jokes, we simply watch the Coto de Caza Board of directors, the LA Trash and the Orange Crud Repository and report the facts
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