Challenges For Israel to Bomb Iranian Nuclear Facilities

by Chriss Street

	Israel is running out of time to use air power to bomb Iran’s nuclear facilities and delay Iranian efforts to build and deploy nuclear weapons.  The “fighting season” in the eastern portion of the Middle East runs from March to early October, and then heavy weather sets in.  Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu stated last

week that Israel could independently attack Iran's nuclear program, but acknowledged that the attack would only delay, rather than completely destroy it. 

Israel has entered a long-term crisis as a result of the Arab Spring radicalizing the Middle East.  Under Muslim Brotherhood control, Egypt is re-militarizing the Sinai Peninsula, while Iran is becoming the most powerful entity in the Middle East.  Israel sees its military position weakening over the long-run, due to its size, despite its current military superiority.  Evolving events potentially may undermine that military superiority, and therefore Israel feels pressured to act now to preserve it. 

Israel does not have the United States’ armada of B-2 bombers, equipped with the Massive Ordnance Penetrator that could cause tremendous damage to the deep and hardened underground Iranian weapons sites.  The United States also has positioned the Enterprise and Dwight D. Eisenhower air craft carriers, and the Iwo Jima, “Big Deck Amphibious Warfare Ship”, to be within close striking distance of Iran.  But President Obama seems unwilling to order a strike, unless Iran becomes more aggressive by curtailing oil shipment through the Straits of Hormuz.  Consequently, Israel will have to rely on its own capability to confront Iran.  

Israel can field a strike force of approximately 100 Lockheed Martin F-16 and 25 Boeing F-15 Boeing F-15 fighter-bombers equipped with long range conformal fuel tanks, supported by up to ten converted Boeing 707 aerial refueling tankers.  Since the lower speed and greater vulnerability of the tankers would restrict their ability to enter Iranian airspace, the American built bombers will only have limited time over their targets.  

According to the Stratfor Reports, the Israeli air force would have to choose one of three potential air corridors to attack Iran.  Each route would “pose serious threats to Israel's aircraft and cause significant diplomatic problems with Iran -- and potentially the rest of the Islamic world -- if they allowed Israeli jets to cross unchallenged.”  The northern route would circumvent Syria's air defense network by flying between Cyprus and Syria, and then proceeding eastward along the Turkey-Syria border into northern Iraq, and then south into Iran.  The shortest route is to fly directly over Jordan and Iraq and into central Iran, but it is expected that Iraq would provide intelligence and warning to Iran, given their close defense relationship.  The third route would fly south over Saudi Arabia and across the Persian Gulf.  But this path would fly directly into Iran’s premier air defense missile systems and be seen by Iran as declaration of war by Saudi Arabia.  

Iran has been sending troops and supplies to reinforce Syrian President Bashar al-Assad’s army.  It seems very likely that the Free Syrian Army rebel forces would be willing to coordinate attacks on Syria’s air defense network during air strikes on Iran.  Such cooperation would allow the Israeli air force’s slow and vulnerable aerial refueling tankers to spend the maximum time loitering close to Iran. This option would allow Israel a direct line of attack to their targets and would avoid the operational and political risks of flying over Saudi Arabia, Jordan or Turkey.

With “clock running out”, there is a high probability that Israel will wield its full military strength to bomb Iran in the next six weeks.  The Arab Spring that the United States helped sponsor and funded has created tremendous instability in the region.  As stable tyrants were replaced by armed tribal and ethnic forces, chaos has ensued.  The coming confrontation between Israel and Iran is sure to heighten this turmoil.   

Chriss Street and Paul Preston Co-Host
“The American Exceptionalism Radio Talk Show”
Streaming Live Monday Through Friday at 7-10 PM
Click Here to Listen:  http://www.mysytv.net/kmyclive.html

Obama Gets Bit Wagging the Dog

By Chriss Street

President Obama hopes of using the “Wag the Dog” strategy of starting a small war in Syria to divert attention from collapsing re-election prospects just got allot more complicated as Syria successfully just shot down a Turkish Air Force American made F-4E 2020 reconnaissance plane with a Russian made and most likely operated SA-5 surface-to-air-missile. Given the plane was hit while flying extremely low and fast less than a mile off the Syrian coast, it seems obvious the plane was spying on coastal defenses

The loss of a front line NATO war plane prior to hostilities being officially declared, demonstrates the Syrian regime of Bashar al Assad and his Russian allies are “locked and loaded” to demonstrate they will not be intimidated by President Obama.

President Bill Clinton successfully pioneered the Wag the Dog strategy in a 1997 NATO bombing campaign of Yugoslavia to distracted public outrage from the Monica Lewinsky scandal. President Obama had hoped to follow Clinton’s play-book of funding an escalating Syrian rebellion, convince NATO to declare a humanitarian emergency and then send in the U.S. Air Force to bomb the supposed offender for the nightly news.

Politically, the last month has been a disaster for Obama’s re-election campaign, with the latest Rasmussen election poll showing him now 5 percentage points down to Mitt Romney and falling fast. Under vicious attack from his own base since the start of the year for not upholding their liberal progressive ideals, the President has been forced to triangulate away from ingratiating the Wall Street and big business financial interests who so mightily funded his last campaign.

Obama’s highly visible embrace of the divisive issues of abortion rights, gay marriage and immigration amnesty cooled the ire of his base, but also turned off Catholics and soccer moms. As his re-election fortunes have tumbled, Obama has ratcheted up his justification for a U.S. intervention in Syria.

The shooting down of the NATO member jet comes two days after we published “The Arab Spring Turns to Winter”, to detail how the Obama Administration and Saudi Arabia were funneling weapons and foreign jihadi warriors into Syria to bolster the rebellion. Yesterday, the New York Times followed with a report that Central Intelligence Agency agents in Turkey are handling the logistics for trans-shipment of heavy weapons to the

rebels. Our report also warned Hezbollah, Syria and Iran’s ally, is actively trying to destabilize the rebels’ supply lines in Northern Lebanon, and Russia has sent a naval task force that includes an aircraft carrier, helicopter gunships, and marines to demonstrate Russia’s willingness to protect their Syrian port at Tartus.

The President had hoped that Syrian adventure would play-out in a similar manner as ousting Colonel Gadhafi from Libya. But in Libya the eastern half of the country was able to throw out the Libyan army in the first days of the rebellion. By the time NATO declared its humanitarian no-fly zone, the Libyan anti-aircraft system’s over-lapping fields-of-fire was compromised and NATO planes faced only modest ground defenses.

No such luxury will be experienced in Syria since after a year of turmoil the rebels have not been able take any cities as a base of operations. During this period, the Syrians have been resupplied with the most sophisticated anti-aircraft systems their Russian benefactors have to offer. According to a June 15 article in The New York Times, Syria has acquired Pantsyr-S1 and Buk-M2 anti-aircraft missiles that are known to be highly effective against air or sea attacks. Plus in recent years, Syria had already been spending $500 million a year on competitive Russian weapons. Brig. Gen. Itay Baron, head of the Israel Defense Force Military Intelligence Research Department stated that together Syria and Iran have approximately 3,500 missiles and Hezbollah has about 60,000 rockets and missiles aimed at Israel; 10 times more than Israel faced in 2006.

Desperate to move the needle of public opinion back in his favor, President Obama now finds himself in a risky trap of his own making. If he backs off of support for the Syrian rebels, he risks being seen as cowering when facing a united strength of Syria, Iran, Russia and Hezbollah. If he boldly charges forward, he risks sparking a full scale war against enemies who know how to fight and will kill.

Listen to Chriss Street & Paul Preston on the Syndicated Radio Show “The Inside Education” Streaming Weekday Evenings from 7-10 PM on: Click Here: http://www.mysytv.net/kmyclive.html



 
 If you would like Chriss Street to speak to your organization, contact chriss@chrissstreetandcompany.com Chriss Street’s latest book: “The Third Way” is now available at www.amazon.com


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