The DeVore-Spitzer Debate & the One Million Dollar OC Man
Posted By CotoBlogzz May 13, 2011
Rancho Santa Margarita, CA – If you think gas prices are exorbitant, have you seen how much it takes to get a candidate elected to the Orange County Board of Supervisors (OCBOS)?
Looking at the open seat in the Orange County Third District as an investment, under what conditions would you buy stock at some 1000 price to earnings (P/E) ratio? Consider that brand-centric companies usually command a 10-30 multiple, whereas financial-centric ones usually go for 1-5 times. Now, Hot Market-Centric Companies Such as the ones listed below, did not get over a 500 times multiple:
Company PE Market Cap
1. AOL 253 $109.4B
2. Yahoo 311 $39.6B
3. Excite 491 $7.3B
4. Amazon -119 $20.2B
Further, according to Forbes, Quarter Ending Date 2011/03 results for Apple Computer, show the following price to earnings ratios:
Current P/E Ratio = 16.7
P/E Ratio 1 Month Ago = 16.0
P/E Ratio 26 Weeks Ago = 20.3
P/E Ratio 52 Weeks Ago = 19.6
12 Month Normalized P/E Ratio = 16.7
Then consider that just this week, a study by Millward Brown a global brands agency found that thanks to the iPhone and iPad Apple, is now worth $153 Billion
According to an email blast from Third candidate Chuck DeVore, his likely opponent Todd Spitzer “….has a million dollars – money from government unions and special interests,” adding that “with a million dollars, my opponent’s consultant can pump out thousands and thousands of slick mailers attacking me with all kinds of false charges – I know, because my opponent’s consultant was the same consultant my defeated 2004 opponent “
So what is the P/E ratio for the Third District? Roughly close to infinity. Why? Because in this case the E is not earnings, as much as it is entitlements. That is, a taxpayer pays for the price and for the entitlement!
We have been trying to get Mr. DeVore and Mr. Spitzer to have a substantive debate on the issues the county of Orange faces, but to date Mr. Spitzer has been unresponsive and Mr. DeVore’s responses have lacked substance. While we have suggested certain bold initiatives, Mr. DeVore has largely responded with reasons why the proposals are not doable – not with his own bold proposals:
A. Audits – We are calling for an audit of the OCSD. The county apparently does not have the necessary tools. The state is supposed to conduct audits to make sure everything is in the up and up. However, no county or state agency contacted so far has records of any audits performed. Further, law enforcement officials and Governor Brown are asking for a tax increase. Does it make sense to have a tax increase when we cannot trace how the public safety dollar is being managed? Mr. DeVore says that “.. the county has the authority to order its own audits, and it should.” The problem with such a response is analogous to having the fox audit the hen house.
Stephen Connelly, OCSD’s Executive Director of Independent Review, for example, when asked about department accountability, he said “Accountability means different things to different people”. Further, Mr. Connely was aware of tools and or metrics used by management in the department to make sure there was some sort of accountability. And a just-released-OCSD follow-up to a 2008 audit criticizing the OCSD for allowing out-of-control, “ because the department lacked sufficient rules and controls “ misses the mark: The new audit credits new overtime rules with a drop in overtime costs of $21.6 million.. We have asked to county to clarify the rationale used to reach such conclusion, as the evidence indicates the reason is "because the department lacked the proper management"
Then there is the issue of an outdated manual timecard system, which needs to be overhauled, and according to Sheriff’s Executive Director Rick Dostal. A new system could save the county as much as $225,000 a year. We are also asking the county to clarify. After all, most reputable payroll processing services provide timecard systems for free. Worse case, there are plenty of open source solutions at no cost to the county.
B. BRCI - We are asking Third candidates to consider an Orange County bureau realignment and closure initiative, whereby 80% of the bureaucracies should either close or merge – initiative patterned after the military closure initiative. If successful, the notion can be a prototype that can be exported to other counties and the nation. No real response from Mr. DeVore
On a related note, Mr. DeVore’s email blast refers to “…an independent poll taken in March shows me beating my opponent, Todd Spitzer, by 39 percent to 25 percent.” Our proprietary Poldex© Index, a measure of relative popularity in the county, places Mr. DeVore at a major disadvantage with only 15%
While it may be understandable that a substantive debate may be too early, given a one million dollar war chest that can be used for demagoguery, voters deserve better. Particularly when the P/E ratio approximates infinity.
DeVore on ANDRES BOCELI - Rancho Santa Margarita, CA- Candidate Obama rightfully demanded that words must mean something. President Obamaregularly parses words not unlike the infamous "it all depends on what is is". Politicians regularly use the terms accountability and transparency, but when pressed as to what they are ready to do, they deflect, deny or ignore, perhaps even lie - that is, the political game of DIDL.
California's Triple Threat - Rancho Santa Margarita, CA - We assert that the sucking sound you hear are all the jobs California is losing to Nevada, Texas and Utah, in large measure do to what we refer to as California's Triple Threat: 1) Public sector organized labor, 2) un-elected, un-checked parasitic bureaucracies and 3) lobbyists.
Economic Freedom and the Triple Constraint - Rancho Santa Margarita, CA - The Heritage Foundation & The Wall Street Journal compared 183 countries across ten specific freedoms such as trade freedom, business freedom, property rights, investment freedom and others, to come up with the so called The Link Between Economic Opportunity and Prosperity: The 2009 Index of Economic Freedom. Such index ranked Hong Kong at the top, while the United States was relegated to the number six slot
A view of Senator Obama Using a Disgruntled Homeowner Prism During a recent blogging exchange with Assemblyman Todd Spitzer , he referred to a particular constituent as a disgruntled member of a homeowners association. Now, we have heard the term disgruntled employee regularly in employer-employee spats and usually in whistle blowing scenarios. We have also hear the term disgruntled resident in the context of an argument between representatives of a homeowners’ association and the resident itself. Never from a politician to characterize a constituent.
A Winning the Future Moment, or Simply: WTF? - Rancho Santa Margarita, CA – President Obama has ditched the car in the ditch metaphor and the Hope & Change slogan in lieu of taking the engine off of an airplane metaphor and Winning the Future slogan . Critics say that the new metaphor does not work, since the airplane is heading to China to mortgage future generations of American, when the airplane has no fuel, while Governor Sarah Palin characterizes the new slogan as “What Were They Thinking” (WWTT) or in the vernacular: WTF?
The 2010 Union Voting Guide - Use at your Own Peril - Rancho Santa Margarita, CA - There is a lot of truth in the old adage that "we should not judge a book by its cover." But what if we have access to the Cover, the Table of Contents and the Appendix? Can we get a good idea as to the contents of the book? In other words, using another adage "tell me who you associate with and I will tell you who you are?" and applying the latter to political elections, if we know the candidate's supporters, we should be able to have a good idea about how that candidate will govern. Take for instance Van Jones, Reverend Wright, the National Representative of the Nation of Islam's Louis Farrakhan, the Reverend Al Sharpton, terrorist William Charles " Bill" Ayers and former White House Chief of Staff Rahm Emanuel all supporters of candidate Obama. Should this not have been a good indicator, largely ignored, of the contents of the now Presidential Book?
THE FORUM: Vote "Yes" for 23; support jobs
The California Air Resources Board acknowledges that "no direct public health impacts" are expected from Prop 23. The proposition delays control of greenhouse gas emissions, implicated in global warming. It delays implementation of AB 32 (the global warming solution), which penalizes sources of emissions, especially refineries and fossil fuel power sources.
The 2010 Union Voting Guide - Use at your Own Peril
Rancho Santa Margarita, CA - There is a lot of truth in the old adage that "we should not judge a book by its cover." But what if we have access to the Cover, the Table of Contents and the Appendix? Can we get a good idea as to the contents of the book? In other words, using another adage "tell me who you associate with and I will tell you who you are?" and applying the latter to political elections, if we know the candidate's supporters, we should be able to have a good idea about how that candidate will govern. Take for instance Van Jones, Reverend Wright, the National Representative of the Nation of Islam's Louis Farrakhan, the Reverend Al Sharpton, terrorist William Charles " Bill" Ayers and former White House Chief of Staff Rahm Emanuel all supporters of candidate Obama. Should this not have been a good indicator, largely ignored, of the contents of the now Presidential Book?
2010 California Propositions Voters Guide
Rancho Santa Margarita, CA - While heuristics indicate that a NO vote in any California's direct special interest democracy is a wise move, following the money may be even better. Below is a list of the 2010 California propositions, their main supporters and our recommendations, including a brief rationale.