Friday, May 02, 2008

Crime and Vandalism Trending, 1Q2008 - Coto de Caza, Ladera Ranch.

Crime and Vandalism Trending, 1Q2008 - Coto de Caza, Ladera Ranch.

May 2, 2008

A review of the OSCD crime and vandalism figures for Coto de Caza and Ladera Ranch show that the steep rate of decrease in the crime and vandalism in Ladera Ranch, which started in the second quarter of 2006 ended in the first quarter of 2008 with a sharp increase compare to the fourth quarter in 2007.
While Coto de Caza also shows a significant increased in the crime and vandalism rate in 1Q2008 as compared to the last quarter in 2007, there is no apparent trend. The only apparent trend is that the crime and vandalism rate decreases for two quarters, only to swing to an all time high, followed by two quarters. One possible interpretation is that public safety within Coto de Caza is not managed at all.

Coto de Caza 1Q2008 Crime and Vandalism - source: OCSD

What remains constant is that the crime rate per capita in Ladera Ranch is much lower that the corresponding one for Coto de Caza
A comparison in the age breakdown of suspects in Coto de Caza between the period from 2006-2007 and 1Q2008 shows that whereas the age group older than 40 years was responsible for most of the crimes in the period from 2006-2007, there was a significant shift in 1Q2008, where most crimes apparently were committed by the younger age group, which is now more aligned with the age group breakdown in Ladera Ranch.
Age Breakdown for Suspects 2006-2007 1Q2008
17 years and under 0 0%
18-20 years 22% 31%
21-24 years 11% 15%
25-29 years 11% 15%
30-34 years 0% 4%
35-39 years 0% 4%
40-44 years 11% 0%
45-49 years 44% 19%
50 years or older 0% 12%
Coto de Caza Age Breakdown - source: OCSD

A troubling figure is that four forcible rapes were reported in Coto de Caza during the first quarter in 2008, and fraud and larceny being the highest crime category. No forcible rapes were reported for Ladera Ranch, while larceny was the most popular crime in that community.

Ladera Ranch Age Breakdown - source: OCSD

Age Breakdown for Suspects 2007 1Q2008
17 years and under 5% 21%
18-20 years 17% 18%
21-24 years 26% 23%
25-29 years 15% 3%
30-34 years 14% 7%
35-39 years 7% 5%
40-44 years 5% 3%
45-49 years 7% 5%
50 years or older 3% 3%

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