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Friday, May 02, 2008
Crime and Vandalism Trending, 1Q2008 - Coto de Caza, Ladera Ranch.
May 2, 2008
A review of the OSCD crime and vandalism figures for Coto de Caza and Ladera Ranch show that the steep rate of decrease in the crime and vandalism in Ladera Ranch, which started in the second quarter of 2006 ended in the first quarter of 2008 with a sharp increase compare to the fourth quarter in 2007.
While Coto de Caza also shows a significant increased in the crime and vandalism rate in 1Q2008 as compared to the last quarter in 2007, there is no apparent trend. The only apparent trend is that the crime and vandalism rate decreases for two quarters, only to swing to an all time high, followed by two quarters. One possible interpretation is that public safety within Coto de Caza is not managed at all.
Coto de Caza 1Q2008 Crime and Vandalism - source: OCSD
What remains constant is that the crime rate per capita in Ladera Ranch is much lower that the corresponding one for Coto de Caza
A comparison in the age breakdown of suspects in Coto de Caza between the period from 2006-2007 and 1Q2008 shows that whereas the age group older than 40 years was responsible for most of the crimes in the period from 2006-2007, there was a significant shift in 1Q2008, where most crimes apparently were committed by the younger age group, which is now more aligned with the age group breakdown in Ladera Ranch.
Age Breakdown for Suspects 2006-2007 1Q2008
17 years and under 0 0%
18-20 years 22% 31%
21-24 years 11% 15%
25-29 years 11% 15%
30-34 years 0% 4%
35-39 years 0% 4%
40-44 years 11% 0%
45-49 years 44% 19%
50 years or older 0% 12%
Coto de Caza Age Breakdown - source: OCSD
A troubling figure is that four forcible rapes were reported in Coto de Caza during the first quarter in 2008, and fraud and larceny being the highest crime category. No forcible rapes were reported for Ladera Ranch, while larceny was the most popular crime in that community.
Ladera Ranch Age Breakdown - source: OCSD
Age Breakdown for Suspects 2007 1Q2008
17 years and under 5% 21%
18-20 years 17% 18%
21-24 years 26% 23%
25-29 years 15% 3%
30-34 years 14% 7%
35-39 years 7% 5%
40-44 years 5% 3%
45-49 years 7% 5%
50 years or older 3% 3%
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The New and Improved OCSD ? Letter to Orange County Supervisor Pate Bates
To: OC Board of Supervisors, Ms Pat BatesAs you may know, the CotoBuzz Journal is committed to public safety.To that end, for the last five years we have worked with the CHP, the OCSD the FBI and the Department of Justice developing what we refer to as...
Dangerous Coto de Caza Roads and Intersections
The changing Coto de Caza demographics have had a major impact on the collision pattern as shown below. Whereas for the period from 2000 through November 2004, 75% of the collisions in the community involved three roads, current collision distribution...
Coto de Caza, 2Q2007 CHP Collision Summary
The newly elected CZ Master Association Board of directors? president has vowed to improve the relationship between the board and CHP management, a minimum requirement in order to increase the CHP traffic patrol to at least 2006 levels. We think that...
1Q2007 Coto de Caza Crime and Vandalism Report
A comparison between the 1Q2006 and 1Q2007 Crime and Vandalism reports shows that a favorite Coto de Caza crime is fraud, that the Peter Pan Syndrome continues to be alive and well (crime is evenly distributed between kids and adults) and a criminal...
Teen Hacker Endangers Lake Forest Couple
According to the Orange County DA, Randall Ellis, 19, Mulkiteo, WA, is charged with one felony count of computer access and fraud, two felony counts of false imprisonment by violence, one misdemeanor count of falsely reporting a crime, and two felony...
CZ Master Association CC&R Violator's List
We continue to receive a flurry of complaints from Coto residents regarding soliciting and door-to-door distribution of service sales literature, including maid, painting, landscaping, remodeling, (etc.)
The Maturing of Coto de Caza-Coto de Caza is no longer GRUP City!
Age distribution in the crime & vandalism and collision statistics for Coto de Caza, indicate that an underage person is as likely to be involved in a crime or collision within Coto, as is a senior citizen. This fact has led us to the conclusion that...
The CotoBuzz Journal March 2007
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The Enemy Within Coto Caza: The CHP - CZ BODs
CHP DOES ITS JOB – CZ BOARD PLEASE DO YOURS! - Despite the public abuse the CHP has received from the Coto de Caza board of directors ever since the board was coerced into bringing the CHP back for pro-active traffic patrol, figures indicate that the CHP is doing its job: Trend for accident rate is down and close to pre-firing levels. Just as important, the number of Coto residents arrested for DUI is down. See chart below for actual accident rate.
Law Enforcement – Evil, Necessary Evil, Or Noble Profession and Role Model? In open societies, we posit that law enforcement follows Winstren’s Law: Law Enforcement Goes Where it is Needed and Stays Where it is Wanted
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