Thursday, April 23, 2015

Something is happening to the Coto de Caza CHP Traffic Accident Statistics and we do not know what it is, but cannot be good

Updated April 24, 2015 at 9:40 pm to include CHP patrol hours

 Posted By J. L. "Buzz" Aguirre

Rancho Santa Margarita, CA –  When we last reported on the state of traffic accidents in Coto de Caza, the California Highway Patrol (CHP) data  for the secondquarter of 2014  ending June 30, 2014 showed the traffic accident rate in Coto de Caza at an all time high, after having registered its third traffic fatality I, while the California Highway Patrol hours in the community were down 25% from a lawsuit mitigation strategy-  such strategy called for 40 random patrol hours per was week.  

1Q2015 Coto de Caza Traffic Accident Rate.  Source:  CHP SJC:  NOTE:  Drop from 2Q2014-1Q2015 is as of yet unexplained

The CHP data for the first quarter of 2015 indicates a dramatic, as of yet unexplained drop from an all time high to a near all time low in traffic accidents.  In the past, we established a direct correlation between patrol hours and accident rates: When the traffic accident rates are at an all time high the CHP Patrol hours are at an all time low.  

Since the tragic death of Franz Nalezny in January 31, 2014, the historically anti-CHP CZ Master Associatin board of directors has done nothing to prevent such fatalities.  Quite the opposite.  It continues to encourage increased traffic in the community without an increase in safety prevention, such as the promotion of the Lyons Development and promotion of the Coto de Caza Polo Arena, for example.

In trying to understand why the quarter-to-quarter dropped from an all time high to an all time low, we contacted CHP Public Information Officer Pete Kim.  We found out something we were unaware of:  the CHP does not usually report traffic accidents which result in property damage in Coto de Caza, , because the community is private property.  The net effect is that the reported accident rates for Coto de Caza are underreported.    A plausible explanation may be that the CHP patrol hours in the community tripled, something that we can empirically discount.  However, to be sure, we asked Officer Kim for an accounting of the patrol hours in the community over the last three quarters:

The patrol hours are as follows:
2Q2014 - 285
3Q2014 - 310
4Q 2014 - 325
1Q 2015 - 355

Compared that to patrol hours for 4Q2013:  370 and lawsuit mitigation strategy of 520, the patrol hours for 1Q2015 are significantly down.

NOTE: Historically, there is a correlation between CHP patrol hours, traffic accident rates and traffic fatalities

We previously found a similar effect with a significant and unexplained drop  in  crime and vandalism according to statistics obtained from the Orange County Sheriff’s department. As we looked into that cause, it was determined that because in a change the system and its management, the work was backlogged and not reported for a while months.  As it happens, the CHP SJC Capistrano has had a new Captain J. Fonseca during this free fall.

At this point all we can say is that we do not know what the last three quarters' CHP traffic accident statistics in Coto de Caza  mean.  Based on the CHP patrol hours for the last three quarters we can say that the previously established cause-effect between patrol hours and traffic accident rates are no longer valid.

Compare this to the Ladera Ranch CHP statistics:  They continue to make sense and we can explain the major drop in traffic accidents from 2006-2009:  A focus on public safety and additional CHP patrol hours.

1Q2015 Ladera Ranch Traffic Accident Rate. Source:  CHP SJC

 Because of the significant unexplained quarter-to-quarter variation in the Coto de Caza statistics starting in 2Q2014, there is little value-add in a quarter-to-quarter comparison.  


Posted by CotoBlogzz Coto de Caza, CA - at around 9:30 Sunday morning, several Orange  County Sheriff patrol cars, were dispatched to the ..

Coto de Caza, CA - The California Highway Patrol  (CHP) traffic accident report for the fourth quarter of 2013 ending December 30, 2013 (4Q2013) shows the traffic accident rate in Coto de Caza is at an all time high at rates comparable to the ones when the CZ Master Association board of directors fired the CHP with fatal consequences in December 2005 and March of 2006.

Rancho Santa Margarita, CA – Qualys, a pioneer and leading provider of cloud security and compliance solutions announced yesterday that its newly released tool can detect the OpenSSL HeartBleed vulnerability announced Monday, April 7, 2014

Using the Qualys tool, the CZ Master Association’s website gets a  grade of F.   So does its security company’s, Universal Protection (UPS) website

Coto de Caza and Ladera Ranch 1Q2011 Public Safety Review

Coto de Caza, CA –By its own words and actions, it is fair to argue that Coto de Caza’s local governance is not only apathetic when it comes to public safety, but its own actions actually result increase the risk to residents. Worse, seems like adults in Coto de Caza have similar views as the local governance.

Our research over close to ten years indicate that whether a community is safe or not, is primarily a function of residents and local governance, not law enforcement. Consider that when a city in Orange County is deemed the safest city, what about the other 11 cities or the unincorporated areas? What about Coto de Caza with the highest crime rate in history in early 2010. After all, only common denominator is that the OCSD is the law enforcement agency. What does the OCSD do differently in the safest city, as opposed to the least safe city under its watch?

Coto de Caza's Traffic Incident Rate at Critical Danger Levels
Coto de Caza, CA - While the Coto de Caza's total population has been shrinking for the last ten years, including placement of 17 property liens for the month of January 2011 out of roughly 3500 homes, the policies pursued by the CZ Master association board of directors, the local governance, have consistently increased traffic with a reduction in CHP patrol hours, with predictable results. Consider that for close to a decade, we have consistently shown conclusive evidence that there is a direct correlation between the extent of the CHP traffic enforcement efforts and the number of traffic accidents in the community.

Coto Continues on Dangerous Course of Traffic Incidents

While Incident Rate Lower, Still at Critical Levels

Coto de Caza, CA - The good news for Coto de Caza residents is that the quarter-to-quarter accident rate for the quarter ending March 31, 2011 is significantly down from the previous quarter. The bad news is that it is still at the same levels as when the community experienced its two traffic fatalities within a three month period between December 2005 and March 2006

Coto de Caza Fires the CHP - Again!

Coto de Caza, CA - The CotoBuzz Journal has documented the one-sided hate-hate relationship between the CZ Master Association board of directors and law enforcement agencies in general, and the California Highway Patrol (CHP) specifically (CHP). In an open board meeting for example, a board member called the Orange County Sheriff's Department (OCSD) extortionists! Despite the public abuse the CHP has received from the Coto de Caza board of directors ever since the board was coerced into bringing the CHP back for pro-active traffic patrol, figures indicate that the CHP has been doing its job: - The Chart below was published Sept. 30, 2006.

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