Updated April 24, 2015 at 9:40 pm to include CHP patrol hours
Posted By J. L. "Buzz" Aguirre
Rancho Santa Margarita, CA – When we last reported on the state of
traffic accidents in Coto de Caza,
the
California Highway Patrol (CHP) data
for the secondquarter of 2014 ending June 30, 2014 showed the traffic accident rate in
Coto de Caza at an all time high, after having registered its third traffic
fatality I, while
the California Highway Patrol hours in the community were down 25% from a
lawsuit mitigation strategy- such strategy called for 40 random patrol
hours per was
week.
 |
| 1Q2015 Coto de Caza Traffic Accident Rate. Source: CHP SJC: NOTE: Drop from 2Q2014-1Q2015 is as of yet unexplained |
The CHP data
for the first quarter of 2015 indicates a dramatic, as of yet unexplained drop from an
all time high to a near all time low in traffic accidents. In the past, we established a direct correlation between patrol hours and
accident rates: When the traffic accident rates are at an all time high the CHP
Patrol hours are at an all time low.
Since the tragic death of Franz Nalezny in January 31, 2014, the historically anti-CHP CZ Master Associatin board of directors has done nothing to prevent such fatalities. Quite the opposite. It continues to encourage increased traffic in the community without an increase in safety prevention, such as the promotion of the Lyons Development and promotion of the Coto de Caza Polo Arena, for example.
In trying to
understand why the quarter-to-quarter dropped from an all time high to an all
time low, we contacted CHP Public Information Officer Pete Kim. We found out something we were unaware of: the
CHP does not usually report traffic accidents which result in property
damage in Coto de Caza, , because the community is private property. The net effect is that the reported accident rates for Coto de
Caza are underreported. A plausible explanation may be that the CHP patrol hours in the community tripled, something that we can empirically discount. However, to be sure, we asked Officer Kim for an accounting of the patrol hours in the community over the last three quarters:
The patrol hours are as follows:
2Q2014 - 285
3Q2014 - 310
4Q 2014 - 325
1Q 2015 - 355
Compared that to patrol hours for 4Q2013: 370 and lawsuit mitigation strategy of 520, the patrol hours for 1Q2015 are significantly down.
 |
| NOTE: Historically, there is a correlation between CHP patrol hours, traffic accident rates and traffic fatalities |
We previously
found a similar effect with a significant and unexplained drop in
crime and vandalism according to statistics obtained from the Orange
County Sheriff’s department. As we looked into that cause, it was determined
that because in a change the system and its management, the work was backlogged and not
reported for a while months. As it happens, the CHP SJC Capistrano has had a new Captain J. Fonseca during this free fall.
At this point
all we can say is that we do not know what the last three quarters' CHP traffic accident statistics in Coto de Caza mean. Based on the CHP patrol hours for the last three quarters we can say that the previously established cause-effect between patrol hours and traffic accident rates are no longer valid.
Compare this to the Ladera Ranch CHP statistics: They continue to make sense and we can
explain the major drop in traffic accidents from 2006-2009: A focus on public safety and additional CHP
patrol hours.
 |
| 1Q2015 Ladera Ranch Traffic Accident Rate. Source: CHP SJC |
Because of the significant unexplained quarter-to-quarter variation in the Coto de Caza statistics starting in 2Q2014, there is little value-add in a quarter-to-quarter comparison.
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