Posted by Cotoblogzz
The Cotobuzz Journals’ Poldex© is non-partisan, heuristics-based indicator associated with relative name-recognition. Over the years it has proven to be very reliable with few surprises, with the possible exception of the 2010 OC Sheriff Department campaign.
For example, during the midterm elections, The Poldex© showed the US senate race with Boxer:100%, Carly: 65%, DeVore: 19% and Campbell 17%. Coupled with other reports, we were able to call accurately that Senate, the California governor and the Orange County Sheriff' races.
At that time we we used the Poldex© for the city council race in the City of Rancho Santa Margarita, showing candidate Jesse Petrilla as a relative unknown scoring less than one percentage point compared to incumbent Jim Thor. An aggressive, dogged campaign catapulted Mr Petrilla to victory.
The race for the open seat in the Orange County Third district has many similarities with the Rancho Santa Margarita council race. It pits a well- financed, establishment-backed Todd Spitzer against Villa Park Councilwoman Deborah Pauly's Tea Party - backed, shoe string campaign, in what we have dubbed Pauly v.Pitzer: An Epic David and Goliath Battle for the Sinking Orange County Titanic
This time the Poldex© results are unexpectedly mixed: statewide, Councilwoman scores 100% to Mr Spitzer 81%. More importantly however, in Orange County alone, Mr Spitzer scores 100% to Councilwoman 's 57%
|Councilwoman Deborah Pauly|
While the Poldex© results do not support a David v. Goliath battle, it does show Councilwoman has an uphill battle. At the dame time, win or lose, it shows she has a lot of potential for a statewide position. The question remains. who is making an investment in the OCBOS and what is the expected return on investment?
Rancho Santa Margarita, CA - There is a lot of truth in the old adage that "we should not judge a book by its cover." But what if we have access to the Cover, the Table of Contents and the Appendix? Can we get a good idea as to the contents of the book? In other words, using another adage "tell me who you associate with and I will tell you who you are?" and applying the latter to political elections, if we know the candidate's supporters, we should be able to have a good idea about how that candidate will govern. Take for instance Van Jones, Reverend Wright, the National Representative of the Nation of Islam's Louis Farrakhan, the Reverend Al Sharpton, terrorist William Charles " Bill" Ayers and former White House Chief of Staff Rahm Emanuel all supporters of candidate Obama. Should this not have been a good indicator, largely ignored, of the contents of the now Presidential Book?
Rancho Santa Margarita, CA - While heuristics indicate that a NO vote in any California's direct special interest democracy is a wise move, following the money may be even better. Below is a list of the 2010 California propositions, their main supporters and our recommendations, including a brief rationale.