It’s Peak Water, Not Peak Oil
By Chriss Street
The 178 countries that adopted United Nations Agenda 21 in
1992 believed that the world had past the point of “Peak Oil” availability and
that governments must dramatically reduce consumption to prevent catastrophic
economic collapse as oil future supply was in terminal decline.
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But over
the last five years, advancements in hydraulic fracking and other new
technologies have eliminated any risks to the availability of oil for at least
the next fifty years. Coupling supply increases with more efficient use
of energy, oil demand may now be in a terminal decline cycle. Given that
fracking is driven by the availability of water supplies, the world is now
entering a period where transnational competition for water will be a key
determinant for economic growth and national security.
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Water is unique compared to other natural resources.
There are lots of substitutes for many resources, including oil, but none for
water. Countries can import fossil fuels, minerals, timber and food; but
they cannot import enough water to significantly change their
circumstances. Water is heavier than oil, making it very expensive to
transport across long distances, even by pipelines, which also requires
energy-intensive pumps
.
Water that sustains life can also cause death, when it
becomes a carrier of deadly microbes or takes the form of a flash flood,
tsunami or hurricane. The greatest natural disasters of our time are the
45 meter high tsunami that devastated the Fukushima nuclear power plant in
Japan in 2011 and Hurricane Katrina leveled New Orleans and the Gulf Coast of
Mexico in 2005 – both water-related.
Supplies of potable (drinkable) water are under strain in
most of the world. Rapid economic and demographic expansion in arid
countries, such as Asia and the Middle East, have turned access to “potable
water” into a major issue across large parts of the world. Rising
standards of living are associated with higher consumption of meat, which is
ten times more water-intensive per calorie than farming plants.
The worldwide human population is just over seven billion
people, but the livestock population is more than 150 billion. The direct
ecological footprint of the livestock population is much greater than that of the
human population. Rapidly rising global meat consumption is now a key
driver of the coming stress on water supplies. Political and economic
conflicts are already raging over the building dams on international
rivers. Egypt has all but threatened war over Ethiopia’s plan to build a
massive dam on the headwaters of the Nile. China is threatening Vietnam
with plans to divert the Mekong River and India with threats of diverting water
flow from the Himalaya Mountains.
A
report reflecting the joint judgment of US intelligence agencies warned
last year that the use of water as a weapon of war or a tool of terrorism would
become more likely in the next decade. The Inter-Action Council,
comprising more than 30 former heads of state or government, has called for
urgent action to prevent some countries battling severe water shortages from
becoming failed states. The U.S. State Department has officially upgraded
water to “a central US foreign policy concern.”
The United States is blessed to have three times the world’s
average of water per capita in out agricultural communities, but China has only
one third the world averages. This 87% deficit has been estimated by the
World Bank to cost China 2.3% of GDP.
South Korea, India, Egypt and Israel are already in a crisis over consistent
water supplies.
Water is a renewable resource, but the amount of usable
freshwater is a fixed resource of about 200,000 cubic kilometers. The
human population has almost doubled since 1970, while the global economy has
grown at an even faster pace. This new prosperity is driving growth of
manufacturing and food production to meet rising consumption levels. This
affluence has caused the average body mass index (BMI) to expand since the
1980’s. Obesity has
doubling and fatter people demand more food.
The era of cheap and plentiful freshwater is rapidly being
replaced by supply and quality constraints. Investors are beginning to
view “Peak Water” as the new gold rush. Unconventional sources, such as
recycling, desalinization and filtering brackish waters can provide some
relief. But gaining access to water supplies is going to increasingly
drive domestic competition and international security.
CHRISS STREET & PAUL PRESTON
Present On the Republic Radio Network in the USA and Canada
“The Agenda 21 Radio Talk Show”
Streaming Live Monday through Friday at 7-10 PM
http://www.republicbroadcasting.org/shoutcast/shoutcast.html
Visit Our Blogs: www.chrissstreetandcompany.com
& www.agenda21radio.com
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