Biden pardons thousands and the FBI normalizes high crime rate: What can go wrong?

Today Joe Biden pardoned thousands of individuals convicted of possessing marijuana the news.  While the pardons apply only to federal offenders convicted of simple marijuana possession as well as those charged in the District of Columbia, Biden called on governors across the country to follow suit saying the current system makes no sense sending pot stocks soaring on. Cynics immediately called the action as mere vote-buying. While it is true that sentencing guidelines do not make sense, you might recall that President Trump championed, with little Democrat support – mostly opposition, the First Step Act: His Department of Justice  took a look at prison sentences and found than in certain cases they were unfair, draconian, and arbitrary. The president led the way in reforming that situation. It was superb leadership. It also had disproportionately positive consequences for minority communities. Why no support?  David Kamioner  wrote: “The reason the Left shrieked that canard is because the race card is their go to mantra. Also, they were terrified Trump would make even more inroads with minority groups. So, how does sentencing reform fare today? Mark Holden and Jason Pye have answers. Holden and Pye: In 2018, President Donald Trump signed the First Step Act into law. This was a generational shift on corrections and sentencing policy preceded by years of work in Georgia, South Carolina, and Texas, led by leaders Rep. Doug Collins (R-GA), Chuck Grassley (R-IA), Mike Lee (R-UT), and Tim Scott (R-SC)”

All models are wrong - some are useful

It is no surprise that pot stocks soared on the news: Promoters in Social Media, particularly LinkedIn continue to glorify the use of cannabis. Kevin Hill, MD, MHS, and Michael Hsu, MD writing in the Harvard Health Publishing, Harvard Medical School state that “As of June 2022, 37 US states have passed medical cannabis laws and 19 states have legalized recreational cannabis. Cannabis has proven beneficial for a range of conditions such as childhood seizure disorders, nausea, vomiting, and loss of appetite in people with HIV/AID.” But Recent research published in The American Journal of Psychiatry closely followed nearly 1,000 individuals in New Zealand from age 3 to age 45 to understand the impact of cannabis use on brain function. The research team discovered that individuals who used cannabis long-term (for several years or more) and heavily (at least weekly, though a majority in their study used more than four times a week) exhibited impairments across several domains of cognition. Long-term cannabis users’ IQs declined by 5.5 points on average from childhood, and there were deficits in learning and processing speed compared to people that did not use cannabis. The more frequently an individual used cannabis, the greater the resulting cognitive impairment, suggesting a potential causative link"

So what is this about the FBI normalizing high crime rate? The FBI just released its 2021 Statistics from the National Crime Data Collection,  with only 63% of the nation’s more than 18,000 law enforcement agencies submitting data for 2021,  the lowest level of participation the FBI has reported since 1979. A question you might ask is why such low level of participation.  After all, the yearly FBI Annual National Crime Report is the most comprehensive view of Crime in the nation. The FBI attributes the low participation on a  change to NIBRS (National Incident Based Reporting System), the data collection system used by the agency. It  requires greater work, detail and effort in logging crimes. According to the agency, “participation in the National Use-of-Force Data Collection, which began on January 1, 2019, is expected to continue to grow as more agencies become aware of this opportunity. When the percentage of officers represented in the data collection reaches 80% or greater, the FBI may present aggregated use-of-force data” 

 The low participation rate is a major concern.  But the agency has decided to compensate the participation rate with estimates- That is analogous to normalizing high crime rate:  Trend charts are a are used to show trends in data over time. All processes vary, so single point measurements can be misleading. Displaying data over time increases understanding of the real performance of a process, particularly with regard to an established target or goal. Since Participation is voluntary and several of the biggest police departments in the country, including the LAPD and NYPD, did not submit any data at all to the FBI last year, perhaps NIBRS is not the only reason for such low participation rates?  Then there is the trust issue.  According to Marjorie Green trust is a major issue: “The lack of transparency and political bias at the top echelon of the FBI, that is unfolding in the public eye, is deepening the public’s mistrust of the Federal Bureau of Investigations. With the recent news that the FBI somehow “lost” five months’ worth of text messages between FBI agents Peter Strzok and Lisa Page, the public is in an uproar and severely in unbelief as to how these messages were supposedly lost. Sadly, it is stories such as these that deepen negative public perception of those in law enforcement who strive to serve the public and do a good job.  She added “Everyday, men and women of the profession work hard to protect the innocent, while they sacrifice much and sometimes they sacrifice all. It is a shame that scandals such as these may cause damage to how the many good LEOs are perceived. When there are headlines in the news and Congressional leaders such as Representative Trey Gowdy stating, “that is a level of bias that is stunning among law enforcement officers,” unknown damage to LEOs public perception is undoubtedly caused. However there are questions that must be asked.”

 That is analogous to normalizing high crime rate:  Trend charts are a are used to show trends in data over time. All processes vary, so single point measurements can be misleading. Displaying data over time increases understanding of the real performance of a process, particularly with regard to an established target or goal. Since Participation is voluntary and several of the biggest police departments in the country, including the LAPD and NYPD, did not submit any data at all to the FBI last year, perhaps NIBRS is not the only reason for such low participation rates?  Its axiomatic:  All models are wrong, some are useful.

Consider that earlier this year in a meeting with Chiefs of Police "Wray talked about the high levels of violent crime across the country and said the FBI is committed to working closely with local law enforcement partners to combat this disturbing trend" What can possibly go wrong with the new FBI estimations?

We previously wrote that he FBI’s own Hate Crime Statistics Report show who is more likely to commit a hate crime. It shows that parents who show up at school board meetings are not likely to be terrorists.  Nevertheless, Attorney General Garland sends the FBI to “protect” school boards. The FBI knows which public officials spew hate and call for violence against the police: For example, Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez expressed her solidarity with the antipolice demonstrations that raged in Brooklyn that included turnstile-jumping and defacing cop cars. The FBI knows that Soros-backed District Attorneys and Prosecutors are way too soft on crime. For example: Mr Anh Le was savagely beaten with a bat by two people in Chinatown. Despite the high Hate Crime rate in the city, The San Francisco DA plea-deal so the  perpetrators did no get jail time – Mr Le had to sue to get justice US Rep. for California Maxine Moore Waters regularly incites violence.  For example, Rep. Maxine Waters called for protesters to “stay on the street” and “get more confrontational” if former Minneapolis police officer Derek Chauvin is acquitted in the killing of George Floyd.

What can possibly go wrong with the low participation rate and new FBI estimations to come up with the Annual National Crime Statistics Report?

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Orange County DA’s Ebrahim Baytieh earns Outstanding Prosecutor of the Year honors

Posted by CotoBlogzz

Rancho Santa Margarita, CA -  Orange County District Attorney's Office (OCDA)  Senior Deputy District Attorney Ebrahim Baytieh was awarded the statewide honor of "Outstanding Prosecutor of the Year"  yesterday at the California District Attorneys Association (CDAA) Summer Conference, for his prosecutions and convictions of over 43 homicide defendants.

Not bad for a Lebanese immigrant who came to America at age 18 right out of high school with $200 in his pocket and unable to speak English, who became an attorney and  has been promoted through the ranks of the 265-lawyer Orange County District Attorney's Office from misdemeanors to special assignments to felony trials and finally to the prestigious homicide panel.

Baytieh enrolled at Golden West Community College - where he took mostly math and science classes working  50 to 60 hours a week to pay for his education.  He graduated from Cal State Fullerton, where he earned  a master's degree in finance, and graduated from  Western State School of Law.

During his last semester at Western State, where he served as student body president, Baytieh also started clerking at the Orange County District Attorney's Office and in  1996, Baytieh was hired as a: criminal prosecutor.

But wait there is more, while the OCDA handles cases from  over 100 law enforcement agencies in the county  its conviction rate is in over 95% with and rejects a relatively low number of cases. A review of the cases rejected by the OCDA’s office show that the agencies with most cases rejected by the OCDA’s office are the NPBPD, IPD, FPD, OCSD & CMPD.  The  SAPD, the OCDA’s second largest client records a low 12% reject rate. A logical conclusion is that the SAPD, which appears to be measuring its work, has a low reject rate, whereas the OCSD, which does not seem to use metrics, has a high reject rate.

Breakdown of cases submitted to the OCDA's office by volume - top five law enforcement agencies. Source: OCDA

Each year, CDAA recognizes individuals whose outstanding ability, professional dedication, personal sacrifice, and advancing ideals of criminal justice merit the respect and admiration of prosecutors statewide. Baytieh, of the OCDA's Homicide Unit, has convicted 43 defendants of murder with no acquittals and obtained the death penalty against five of those defendants.

"This award is a tremendous acknowledgment of the hard work and dedication that Ebrahim puts into every case.  He is passionate about protecting the rights of victims and tireless in his fight for justice. Ebrahim's receipt of the 'Prosecutor of the Year' award is well deserved and brings prestige to the Orange County District Attorney's Office," said id District Attorney Tony Rackauckas in a prepared statement

"I am very humbled and honored to receive this amazing award on a personal level; however, I also recognize that this award is more of a reflection on our great office and the excellent team of prosecutors and DA investigators that I am fortunate enough to work with every day," said Baytieh.