by Chriss Street
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Thirty
years from now, historians will mark the assassination of America’s
Ambassador to Libya on September 11, 2012 as a more important event than the
terrorist attacks on September 11, 2001. On “911”, the United States’
self-appointed role to provide relative peace in the Western World as the only military super-power was
challenged for the first time since the collapse of the Soviet Union in the
mid-1980s. Eleven years later, on “911 Squared”, that role was
terminated.
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As
television cameras recorded an overwhelmed America under siege throughout the
Middle East, the real action moved to the Pacific where Russia, China and Japan
took advantage of the American power vacuum to mobilize their military to
enforce their own strategic ambitions in the Pacific.
Russia seized control of up to
1.5 million square miles of the Artic by opening bases to station a squadron of
20 MIG 31 Foxhounds, the
fastest fighter jet in the world. China claimed sovereignty over the 1.35 million square mile South
China Sea and launched
its first aircraft carrier to enforce its dominance. Japan’s leading
political party announced they will seek toterminate Article 9 of the Japanese Constitution that prohibits offensive
acts of war and the
Japanese navy began joint naval exercises with Russia. The Philippines
moved to protect their claims to islands in the South China Sea by deploying 800 marines and setting up a permanent
base on contested Spratly Islands. The South Korean Navy fired warning shots
at North Korean “fishing boats” that
may have been trying to land military personnel and take control over five
contested islands in the Yellow Sea. Vietnamese President Tan Sang
strengthened his country’s claims in the South China Sea by signing resource joint ventures with
Russia. The common equation in all these military actions is a
desire to capture potential off-shore oil and gas deposits before American
protection of oil flow through the Middle East sea lanes evaporates.
America has eleven aircraft
carriers, marked “CVN”, that each carry 40 attack jets. The U.S. also has
nine small carriers that each transport a 1687 member Marine Expedition Force,
plus helicopters and fighter jets, marked “LHA.” Because of maintenance
and homeland protection, only a third of the fleet can be deployed
internationally at any given time. As seen below, the navy is operating
at its maximum capability by dispatching a larger naval force to the Pacific
than to the volatile Middle East:
Currently the United States has
three carriers operating in the Middle East trying to deal with the Iranian
nuclear program, a CIA sponsored war in Syria, Taliban infiltration of Afghan
security forces, Egypt’s threat to take over Sinai Peninsula and mass rioting
across the region. But virtually unseen by the media, the United States
has dispatched four carriers in the Western Pacific to respond to the Russian
land grab, Chinese aspirations demands, North Korean nuclear threats and
emergence of a new imperialist Japan.
Over the last eleven years, U.S.
federal spending doubled, but the U.S. economy grew by only 50%. Today
our national debt is at the Greek level of 105% of our economy, versus just 55%
in 2001. It is obvious to world leaders that the United States is maxed
out financially and will be forced to cut spending across the board, including
defense.
Meanwhile, the annual United States Center for
Army Leadership independent
report determined that only 25% of the Army’s 570,000 officers and enlisted
soldiers believe the nation’s largest military branch is headed in the right
direction — a survey response that is the lowest on record and reflects what
some in the service call a crisis in confidence. Morale scores were
especially low in Afghanistan and records reveal that the monthly suicide rate
hit a new high of 26 in July of this year. The effectiveness of America’s
fighting forces is rapidly deteriorating after 11 years of sustained combat.
As we recently documented, the United States is rapidly
approaching North American energy independence, having reduced our
reliance on Persian Gulf oil from over 30% in 2005 to just 10% today; but the
rapidly growing Asian economies have all increased their percentage reliance on
Persian Gulf oil to over 40% today, even as Middle East Arab Spring reduced
output in Iran, Libya, Egypt, Sudan and Syria.
With the American military
dominance of the Middle East now a fading concept, the sea lanes will
increasingly be at the mercy of radical Islamists. The Shiites will be
more motivated to try to rebuild the Persian Empire that dominated the Persian Gulf region
for 1000 years and the Muslim Brotherhood will be more motivated try resurrect
the Moorish Caliphate that
dominated North Africa and Southern Europe for 700 years.
For America, elimination of the
military burden of being responsible to enforce peace in the Middle East is a
net financial positive. For Asia, Middle East oil flow represents
continued progress, whereas disruption represents economic downfall and
starvation.
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